Abstract Weather Storms and Climate Anomalies Abstract: Extreme weather and climate conditions can cause widespread damage to infrastructure and natural resources. This work addresses the predictability of two such events, the winter storm "Lothar" in 1999 and the 1997/98 El Niño event. Both phenomena illustrate how the involved processes are interrelated in a non-linear man- ner. The predictability of such events is limited. By means of the simple dynamical Lorenz system, we show how predictability can be improved by probabilistic forecasts, which can be applied to various kinds of we ather and climate predictions. In general, the probabilistic approach increases the benefit significantly compared to a single deterministic forecast. However, the interpretation of probabilistic forecasts needs to be handled with care and their usability depends on the particular application.
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↑ https://www.ingentaconnect.com/contentone/oekom/gaia/2003/00000012/00000004/art00009